CVAS + 2k + TSM PAGES MeetingHybrid Event

6 Mar 2023, 09:00 → 10 Mar 2023, 17:00 Europe/Berlin

Plenary room Building H (AWI Potsdam)

Welcome! 

Welcome to the  hybrid CVAS/ 2k Network/ TSM which will take place in Potsdam (Germany) from the 06th to the 10th of March 2023.

 

Sponsored by

PAGES Past Global Changes,

SCAR INSTANT 

and the ERC StG Grant SPACE 

Schedule

The current schedule can be found on the webpage; this is a living document and will be updated regularly. 

Access to online participation

Online access to the meetings are provided in the Agenda. 

If you wish to join a breakout session online, please use the CVAS/ 2k Network/ TSM Webex Room link in the online schedule. After you enter the meeting, please find the button ‘breakout sessions’/’Teilgruppen-Sitzungen. Now the breakout session rooms will pop up and you can choose which you would like to enter. You can always return to the main session.
 

Logistical information

Please find additional logistical information here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1emmi3tn5mDBHHIgfbPH0htfWg0bfe0M-zRl5y-yIafs/edit#

Presentations & Contributions

Each participant of 2k or CVAS is required to bring a Poster or printed out figures and present them during the Ice Breaker Poster Session; please also bring material (small printout of poster; or figures) for the breakout groups. 

 

As this is a workshop, there are only a few talks; for the TSM meeting, these are overview talks where everybody can contribute by proposing ideas, or contributing slides. The google docs for the material collection can be found in the program

 

For the CVAS meeting, you can already contribute shaping the breakout groups by contributing to the google docs linked in the program ('Breakout group Formation'

 

 

Monday 6 March

09:00 → 12:30 Pre-Workshop Excursion

Walk in the UNESCO world heritage site Park Sanssoucci and visit of the Neues Palais (New Palace) on Monday morning (approx. 9.15-12.30 am). The visit will cost approx. 10€ for the entrance and 2.70€ for public transport to get from Park Sanssoucci to Potsdam main station/ Telegrafenberg. While the walk is not limited and open to all, the tickets to enter the Neues Palais are subject to availability and will be distributed based on first booking - first serve.

12:30 → 13:30 Registration and light lunch

13:30 → 15:00 2k Network - Welcome and Introduction

2k Network Webex Room

13:30 Welcome and getting started

Welcome, workshop outline, brief overview of Phase 4, including outline of existing databases that we can draw on & their features

Speaker: PAGES 2k Coordinators

14:00 Seminar

Insights from the previous Hydro2k effort. This seminar will act as a ‘kick-off’ for the meeting, outlining challenges/successes/general thoughts from the last time a global hydroclimate synthesis was attempted

Speaker: Thomas Felis

13:30 → 15:00 CVAS

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

Convener: Thomas Laepple

CVAS Webex Room

13:30 Welcome and overview

Speaker: Thomas Laepple

13:40 Climate Variability Across Scales, Introduction

(10' min pres. + 5' min disc.)

Speaker: Shaun Lovejoy

14:05 Earth’s Complexity Is Non-Computable: The Limits of Scaling Laws, Nonlinearity and Chaos

Speaker: Sergio Rubin

14:30 Climate modelling and structural stability

Speaker: Vincent Lam

15:00 → 15:30 Coffee Break

15:30 → 17:00 2k Network - Welcome and Introduction

2k Network Webex Room

15:30 Seminar

Present upcoming Holocene hydroclimate proxy database & reconstruction. Insights from collation of this dataset, and how he went about combining information from the various proxies.

Speaker: Chris Hancock (virtual)

16:15 Seminar

Insights from the development and creation of Iso2k, a multi-proxy database with all the metadata required for analysis across different proxy and archive types

Speaker: Bronwen Konecky (virtual)

15:30 → 17:00 CVAS

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

CVAS Webex Room

15:30 Statistical mechanics in climate emulation: Challenges and perspectives

Speaker: Ivan Sudakow

16:00 Millennial-scale land variability

Speaker: Raphael Hebert

16:30 Climate Variability Diagnostics

Speaker: Clara Deser (virtual)

17:00 → 20:00 joint Postersession (incl. Snacks)

Tuesday 7 March

09:00 → 10:30 2k Network

2k Network Webex Room

09:00 Welcome & outline of the day

Speaker: PAGES 2k Coordinators

09:30 Seminar

paleoproxies, PSMs, and models, including
- data-model gaps
- temperature to precipitation correlations
- model biases
- new directions (e.g. machine learning)

Speaker: Kira Rehfeld

09:00 → 10:30 CVAS: CVAS Session 2

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

CVAS Webex Room

09:00 CVAS Outline of the day

Speaker: Thomas Laepple

09:05 Intro Talks: Stochastic Modelling

10min Talk + 5min Discussion

Speaker: Shaun Lovejoy

09:20 Intro Talks: Detuning Models

10min Talk + 5min Discussion

Speaker: Pepijn Bakker

09:35 Intro Talks: Mapping Calibrated

10min Talk + 5min Discussion

Speaker: Raphaël Hébert, Mara McPartland, Andrew Dolman

09:50 Intro Talks: Mapping Uncalibrated

10min Talk + 5min Discussion

Speaker: Cécile Blanchet, Fabrice Lambert

10:05 Breakout Group Formation

People go to the corner of their choice to make 4 groups, bit of discussion to figure out who stays where

1.) Breakout groups on climate modeling
1.A) Alternative climate modelling approaches, i.e. outside of the usual general circulation models, such as energy-balance and stochastic models
Lead: S. Lovejoy

1.B) Model ‘detuning’, i.e. to explore a wider parameter space in climate models with a focus on identifying parameters that would be linked to low-frequency variability.
Lead: P.Bakker, T.Laepple

In both cases, we aim to achieve climate modelling in line with evidence derived from the palaeoclimate records, in particular with respect to variability at different timescales.

2) Breakout groups with the aim to produce global maps of climate-relevant variability at different time-scales

2.A) Using calibrated records (e.g. for surface temperature)
R.Hebert, A.Dolman

2.B) Using records that can't be directly calibrated to a physical climate parameter (such as XRF data)
C.Blanchet, F.Lambert
Content of the discussions will include the development of the research framework, as well as expected results and the associated hypotheses concerning the spatial structure, scaling and proxy dependency. Bringing experts together from different perspectives (theory, models and proxy) will allow to cover the full range of expectations and this will lead to a document accompanying the mapping project. The outcomes of this discussion will also directly feed into the TSM on centennial climate variability at regional scale in models and reconstructions.

Speaker: Thomas Laepple

Collection for the modeling breakout groups; Please contribute

Collection for the Variability Mapping Breakout groups; please contribute

10:30 → 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 → 12:30 2k Network

2k Network Webex Room

11:00 Seminar

Update on next PHYDA version, metadata required to assimilate hydroclimate data, what data types are currently feasible for DA, what data types may become feasible, and how exactly integrations happen

Speaker: Nathan Steiger

12:00 Questions & discussions

Everyone

11:00 → 12:30 CVAS: Breakout Groups

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

CVAS Webex Room

12:30 → 14:00 Light Lunch and Tour of historical campus Telegrafenberg

Bernhard Diekamann will take you on a tour around the historic Telegrafenberg on which the Albert Einstein Science Park sits today. Enjoy a walk after lunch and learn about how this interessting site developed since the 19th century.

14:00 → 15:30 2k Network

2k Network Webex Room

14:00 Intro to focus topics

Intro to focus topics (NAO / ENSO / Southern latitudes) & open discussion on big picture hydroclimate questions

Speaker: PAGES 2k Coordinators

14:30 Breakout 1

Everyone
in subgroups, discuss Phase 4 Objective 1 (what are suitable hydroclimate reconstruction targets):
North Atlantic
ENSO/monsoon
Southern high latitudes
All other regions of interest
(convene ~3:10 to distill main points from discussion)

15:15 Breakout 2

Everyone
in subgroups, discuss Phase 4 Objective 2 (model integration and data/model comparison targets - details below)

Evaluate and constrain Earth system models using hydroclimate proxy data, whilst using models to inform process-level understanding of Common Era hydroclimate. This will deepen our understanding of the drivers of hydroclimate changes reconstructed in Objective 1. Objective 2 includes close integration with the PMIP4-Past2k community and use of their recently finished simulations, and will benefit from new developments in modeling, for example in water isotope-enabled simulations.
(convene ~3:25 to distill main points from discussion)

14:00 → 15:30 CVAS: Continuation of the Breakout Groups

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

CVAS Webex Room

15:30 → 16:00 Coffee Break

16:00 → 18:00 2k Network

2k Network Webex Room

16:00 Continue Breakout 2

16:30 Breakout 3

Everyone
in subgroups, discuss Phase 4 Objective 3 (practicalities of hydroclimate proxy collation & database management - details below)

Develop tools and practices to maximize interoperability of 2k data products, including data sets from earlier phases. PAGES 2k has built data products with both temperature- and hydroclimate-sensitive datasets (e.g., Iso2k, CoralHydro2k) but tools are needed to screen, query, and synthesize across databases. We aim to develop these tools, to extend the interoperability of these databases and ensure that they are available for ongoing use within and beyond the paleoclimate scientific community. We will also perform intercomparison of existing paleoclimate reanalysis products.
(convene ~4:25 to distill main points from discussion)

17:15 Conclusions Breakout Rooms

All groups to report conclusions from breakout rooms; whole-group discussion

16:00 → 18:00 CVAS: Plenary: Reporting and discussion on breakout group outcome

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

CVAS Webex Room

Wednesday 8 March

09:00 → 10:30 2k Network

2k Network Webex Room

09:00 Welcome & outline of the day

Speaker: PAGES 2k Coordinators

09:15 Breakout rooms

Everyone

09:00 → 10:30 CVAS: Session 3

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

CVAS Webex Room

09:00 Welcome and Outline of the Day

Speaker: Thomas Laepple

09:05 Continuation of new breakout groups

Group 1: GCM's & data; Tuning target for Holocene variability
Group 2: Theory and stochastic models & data

Please also think on implications/questions of this for the centennial variability workshop (slides are possible)

Breakout group modeling

10:30 → 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 → 12:30 2k Network

2k Network Webex Room

11:00 Breakout rooms

11:30 Report & discuss conclusions from breakout discussions

Report & discuss conclusions from breakout discussions; discuss who is going to do what going forward (i.e., plans for future work)

12:00 Final summary wrap-up

Speaker: PAGES 2k Coordinators

11:00 → 11:30 CVAS: Summary from the breakout groups

Welcome and purpose of the CVAS week

Convener: Everyone .

CVAS Webex Room

11:30 → 12:30 What is the Future of CVAS

Steering committee / everybody interested to
lead/support such an effort

Speaker: Steering committee

12:30 → 13:30 Light Lunch

13:30 → 15:00 Topical Science Meeting: Session 1

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

13:30 Welcome

Speaker: Hugues Goosse

13:45 The enigma of multidecadal to centennial temperature variability in climate simulations and reconstructions

(outcome from the last workshop in Heidelberg concerning local and global variability in models and proxy data )

Speaker: Thom Laepple & PingPong Team

14:05 Workshop Reports: CVAS

Speaker: Group Leaders

14:30 Workshop Reports: PAGES 2k

Speaker: Group Leaders

15:00 → 15:30 Coffee Break

15:30 → 18:10 Topical Science Meeting: Session 2

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

15:30 Two case studies for understanding hydroclimate from different proxies, across temporal scales

Sloan Coats: Hydroclimate model-(paleo)data comparisons from gridded fields to single timeseries: Challenges and opportunities

Luke Parson: Hydroclimatic Variance in Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium

(each 20min Talk + 10min Discussion)

Organizers: Alyssa Atwood, Matt Jones

Speaker: Luke Parsons, Sloan Coats

Material collection, please contribute

16:30 What are the main signals from the polar region

15min Talk + 15min Discussion

Speaker: Anais Orsi, Liz Thomas

Material collection, please contribute

17:00 From simple models and physics - What are the expectations from physics…. (e.g. can tropics have more variability than high latitudes… )

15min Talk + 15min Discussion

Speaker: Anson Cheung, Raphaël Hébert, Xu Zhang

Material collection, please contribute

17:30 From complex models

15min Talk + 15min Discussion

Speaker: Jürgen Bader, Hugues Goosse, Qiong Zhang

Collection of materials, please contribute

18:00 Breakout Groups Formation

Main signals from
1.) paleo-observations
2.) complex models
3.) physics

18:15 → 20:00 Free Time/Dinner Take your breakout group out for dinner!

Suggest Restaurants: El Puerto, L'Osteria, Peter Pane...

20:00 → 21:30 Outreach Event: Public Event: Pint of Science, Café des Sciences

Thursday 9 March

09:00 → 10:30 Topical Science Meeting

Convener: Hugues Goosse

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

09:00 Good Morning

Speaker: Hugues Goosse

09:05 Breakout Groups

Introducing yourself and your science

T1: Describe the main and most robust signals / expectations from your group topic
T2: What are the burning issue from your group topic?
T3: What input would you expect from the other groups?
T4: What do your findings imply for the other groups?

Breakout Data (group from upper corner)

10:30 → 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 → 12:30 Topical Science Meeting: Session 3

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

11:00 Methods: Analysis of variability

20min Talk + 10min

Speaker: Reik Donner

Material collection, please contribute

11:30 Methods: Data Assimilation and Variability

20min Talk + 10min Discussion

Speaker: Nathan Steiger

Material collection, please contribute

12:00 Methods: Spatial Analyses (and methods to separate signal and noise using spatial information)

20min Talk + 10min Discussion

Material collection, please contribute

12:30 → 13:30 Light Lunch

13:30 → 15:30 Topical Science Meeting

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

13:30 Breakout group contiuation

30min Continuation of the breakout groups of main signals in
paleo-observations complex models physics

to prepare (e.g. slides) for the presentation of the questions

Than back to the auditorium at 2pm

14:00 Wrapup in the auditorium and formation of new groups

15:30 → 16:15 Coffee Break

16:15 → 18:00 Topical Science Meeting

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

16:30 Breakout groups

1. Oscillations vs. Continuum spectra; can it inform us on the mechanism?
   stats (how to do it) ; models; proxies; theory (what does it mean)

2.Temperature vs. Hydroclimate; What do we expect in the models and what do we have in the data; spatial structure…

Enhancing/Fudging/Rescaling/perturbing/ the models; Develop designs together… / new model experiments?

4 Volcanic vs. AMOC… develop a fingerprint and test for it… includes latitude (includes potentially a synthesis of quantitative variability estimates against latitude… (need to extract it in the model)…

1. Southern Ocean … Are there coherent signals in the region; Antarctica/South America … Cause / links tropics…

6.) Sweet spot of PSM

19:00 → 21:00 Conference Dinner

Friday 10 March

09:00 → 10:30 Topical Science Meeting: Session 4

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

09:05 Good Morning

possibility to readjust the groups (if somebody wants to switch or some expert is needed)

Speaker: Hugues Goosse

09:20 Work in breakout groups defined on the previous day

Working Document Group 4; AMOC/Volcanic Imprint and Latitudinal pattern

10:30 → 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 → 12:30 Topical Science Meeting: Summary of morning breakout groups & preparing the Next Steps

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

12:30 → 13:30 Light Lunch

13:30 → 14:30 Topical Science Meeting: Distribution of Tasks

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

14:30 → 15:00 Topical Science Meeting: Wrap Up

Description of breakout groups

TSM Webex Room

15:00 → 17:00 Supplementary Splinter Meetings: (and Goodbye Beer)

Convener: Only people requesting supplementary splinter meetings