Conveners
Climate response / Earth Radiation Budget / S2S prediction: (4 contributed talks)
- Gavin Schmidt (NASA, USA)
Climate response / Earth Radiation Budget / S2S prediction: (2 invited talks)
- Gavin Schmidt (NASA, USA)
Climate response / Earth Radiation Budget / S2S prediction: (3 contributed talks)
- Gavin Schmidt (NASA, USA)
The long-predicted climate change signal is emerging outside the noise in many regions. These changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that impact society. While early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through, e.g., operational decadal predictions, there are several challenges: there is a lack of understanding of the dynamical mechanisms that enable...
In this paper we investigated the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), for simplicity called in this paper an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index in 1950-2023 by applying the wavelet spectral transform and the IBM SPSS correlations analysis. ONI follows the three months current measurements of an average temperature of the sea surface in the East-Central tropical part of the Pacific ocean...
To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the "initial" solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models — FOCI, EMAC, and MPI-ESM-HR. Consistent with previous work, we find that the 11-year solar cycle signals in the...
The ground temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter is greatly influenced by the state of the polar vortex. When the vortex collapses during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), rapid changes in stratospheric circulations propagate downward to the troposphere in the subsequent weeks. The ground effect following SSWs is typically manifested as the negative phase of the North...
There is growing evidence that variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle has an impact at the Earth’s surface and influences its weather and climate. Although the direct global response to the Sun’s variability is extremely small, a number of different mechanisms have been suggested that could amplify the signal, resulting in regional signals that are much larger than expected. The...
We discuss long range forecasting from months to a few years ahead with a focus on current predictions systems, levels of prediction skill and the physical mechanisms that provide predictability, including the role of solar variability and its representation in prediction systems. On these timescales, initial conditions play a significant role in predictability and initialised climate...
The tropical Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 40-50 day oscillation, is an eastward-propagating,convectively-coupled wave which functions as a key driver of sub-seasonal to seasonal convection and precipitation variability in the tropics (e.g., Madden and Julian 1994). The MJO generates a Rossby wave train that strongly influences weather in the extratropics on subseasonal...
Recent studies have shown that geomagnetic activity, used as a proxy for energetic electron precipitation (EEP), influences weather conditions, e.g. temperature and wind speed, during winter in certain regions of the Northern hemisphere. EEP forms ozone-depleting hydrogen and nitrogen oxides (HOx & NOx), which alter the radiative balance in wintertime atmosphere and enhance the northern polar...
This study examined the effect of solar flux (F10.7) and sunspots number (R) on the daily variation of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and morning/afternoon counter electrojet (MCEJ/ACEJ) in the ionospheric E region across the eight longitudinal sectors during quiet days from January 2008 to December 2013. In particular, we focus on both minimum and maximum solar cycle of 24. For this purpose, we...
